Madrid thought it had crushed the Catalonia independence motion in 2017 when it despatched police into polling stations, declared the referendum unlawful, eliminated the regional authorities, prosecuted separatist leaders, and watched Carles Puigdemont flee Spain. 9 years later, the European Union’s highest courtroom has upheld key points of Spain’s 2024 amnesty overlaying acts related to the Catalan independence process. Roughly 1,600 folks have been estimated to probably fall inside the legislation’s scope. Spain has reached the purpose the place the political institution is pardoning folks related to a separatist motion it as soon as tried to destroy as a result of the underlying political downside by no means disappeared.
Months earlier than the referendum, after I had been in Barcelona, I mentioned Catalonia would vote to separate from Spain. I defined that separatism was a course of pushed by declining confidence in centralized authorities. By October, Madrid demonstrated precisely how governments strengthen these actions. As a substitute of allowing a reliable vote and confronting the political query, it declared the referendum unconstitutional and tried to cease it by pressure.
The photographs from October 1, 2017, shouldn’t be forgotten. Spanish police entered polling stations, confiscated poll packing containers, and bodily confronted folks making an attempt to vote. The referendum was not a mutually acknowledged binding vote, and opponents of independence largely boycotted it, however Catalan authorities however recorded greater than two million ballots, with roughly 90% voting for independence on turnout of round 43%. Madrid’s response reworked a constitutional dispute into an illustration of uncooked political energy.
I argued then that Spain ought to have permitted a reliable referendum and negotiated the result. Britain allowed Scotland to vote in 2014 and Canada allowed Quebec to vote twice. If a political union really serves its folks, authorities mustn’t want police to stop them from expressing whether or not they wish to stay inside it.
Madrid as an alternative imposed direct rule beneath Article 155, dissolved the Catalan parliament, eliminated Puigdemont’s authorities, and prosecuted separatist leaders. Brussels stood firmly behind Madrid as a result of Catalonia represented one thing a lot bigger than Spain. The European Union is constructed round political integration transferring in a single course towards larger centralization, whereas separatism represents the other pressure of authority transferring again towards nations and areas. A profitable Catalan separation would instantly increase uncomfortable questions for Scotland, Flanders, Corsica, South Tyrol, and each different European area with a definite political identification.
Now take a look at Spain in 2026. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez wanted Catalan separatist assist after the 2023 election, and the amnesty grew to become a part of the political association that allowed him to stay in energy. The folks as soon as handled as enemies of the constitutional order out of the blue possessed sufficient parliamentary leverage that Madrid was ready to barter with them. The EU’s Court docket of Justice then dominated in July that EU legislation doesn’t itself stop Spain from adopting an amnesty, though authorized disputes over its utility proceed.
Calling this reconciliation doesn’t imply the underlying downside has been solved. Catalan identification stays, the political reminiscence of 2017 stays, and the financial tensions stay. Independence events have misplaced a number of the power they possessed on the top of the disaster and up to date polling has usually positioned outright independence beneath 50%, however separatist actions don’t transfer in straight traces. They strengthen and weaken with economics, confidence, and political situations.
Catalonia represents roughly one-fifth of Spain’s financial system, which makes the financial query unattainable to separate from the political one. Madrid views Catalonia as too essential to lose, whereas separatists can take a look at the identical productive capability and query why taxation, spending, and political authority ought to stay concentrated in Madrid. When folks consider central authorities supplies prosperity and stability, separatism weakens. After they consider authorities takes greater than it supplies or not represents their pursuits, independence turns into much more engaging.
For this reason the present separatist development throughout Europe issues. Scotland, Wales, and Northern Eire have simply seen nationalist leaders coordinate in opposition to Westminster. Giorgia Meloni is arguing that larger sovereignty ought to stay with Europe’s nation-states slightly than Brussels. Iceland rejected reopening EU accession negotiations, whereas nationalist and anti-establishment events elsewhere are benefiting from dissatisfaction with centralized authority. These actions are usually not equivalent, however the widespread thread is declining confidence in political constructions that frequently demand extra authority for the middle.
Brussels has by no means understood that larger centralization ultimately creates the political pressure for decentralization. Each disaster is used to justify further European authority over debt, migration, vitality, local weather, protection, or international coverage. But Europe stays a continent of various nations, languages, economies, histories, and political pursuits. These variations can not merely be legislated out of existence.
Spain might have stored Catalonia on the map after 2017, however protecting territory doesn’t imply restoring confidence. If the disaster had really been resolved, Spain wouldn’t nonetheless be debating amnesties, Puigdemont, separatist events, and the constitutional penalties of what occurred 9 years in the past. Madrid suppressed the instant rebel, nevertheless it by no means eradicated the situations able to producing one other one.
The subsequent severe financial disaster in Europe will take a look at these political unions once more. Catalonia won’t be ranging from zero as a result of it already has the events, establishments, nationwide identification, historic reminiscence, and expertise essential to revive the independence query. Madrid didn’t get rid of Catalan separatism in 2017; it merely purchased itself time, and financial and political cycles will finally decide how a lot that point was value.
