Dhaka, Bangladesh – Bangladesh’s February 12 election has delivered a landslide victory for the Bangladesh Nationalist Social gathering (BNP), which can now type the primary elected authorities because the July 2024 mass rebellion that toppled former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League social gathering.
Whereas the election, from which the previous governing Awami League was banned, has been considered as one thing of a litmus check for political change in Bangladesh, observers say the overwhelming election of the BNP, certainly one of simply two events which have held energy constantly since independence in 1971, reveals Bangladeshis might choose to stay with what they know.
On Friday, the Election Fee launched unofficial results exhibiting the BNP successful 209 seats out of 297 already introduced; Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami with 68; the Nationwide Citizen Social gathering (NCP) with six; smaller events, a handful of seats; and independents with seven seats.
In all, 299 of the 300 elected seats in parliament have been up for grabs on this election. Turnout was about 60 p.c.
Registered voters additionally voted in a referendum to approve constitutional reforms, with simply greater than 60 p.c voting “sure” for the July Nationwide Constitution outlining these reforms.
Closing official outcomes are nonetheless pending, however Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, BNP’s secretary-general, hailed the sweeping election victory as proof that the BNP is “a celebration of the individuals”. The social gathering expects to type a authorities on Sunday.
On Friday evening, Jamaat-e-Islami, the BNP’s most important opponent on this election, had but to concede defeat, saying it was not “glad” with the vote count and elevating “critical questions concerning the integrity of the outcomes course of”.
Analysts concern this will likely sign a return to the confrontational politics of the previous in Bangladesh.
A vote for familiarity, expertise
Asif Mohammad Shahan, professor of growth research at Dhaka College, mentioned the end result confirmed most individuals would somewhat decide to have a recognized political group in energy at instances of uncertainty.
“Voters selecting BNP means they finally selected a well-known political pressure. They appeared to choose a celebration whose governing expertise they already knew, regardless of reservations about a few of its previous practices,” he informed Al Jazeera.
In the end, the end result signifies that the individuals of Bangladesh have chosen to revert to institutional politics following the turbulence of 2024 somewhat than embrace any kind of ideological shift as represented by the student-led Nationwide Citizen Social gathering, which joined forces with Jamaat to contest this election.
Political historian Mohiuddin Ahmad informed Al Jazeera that this election was nearly a “repetition of the 2001 election” when the BNP surged in reputation and gained 193 parliament seats, forward of the beforehand governing Awami League, which secured simply 62.
The true litmus check, now, he mentioned, shall be to see how nicely the opposing events cooperate within the new parliament. “Parliamentary democracy turns into profitable via cooperation between the treasury bench and the opposition bench,” he informed Al Jazeera.
However can Bangladesh steer away from the confrontational politics of the previous?
Two competing mandates
Political reform is way from off the agenda, nevertheless, and this will likely finally be what drags the nation again to these unhealthy outdated days, consultants say.
On Thursday, Bangladesh additionally held a referendum on the July Nationwide Constitution, a blueprint for constitutional reforms rising from the 2024 rebellion and geared toward restructuring the state’s governance structure. It has been overseen by a caretaker authorities in place because the ousting of Hasina.
The constitution proposes a brand new two-chamber parliament, new procedures for appointing constitutional our bodies such because the Election Fee, and strengthening institutional checks to cut back winner-takes-all govt dominance.
It additionally outlines broader constitutional reforms, together with expanded basic rights and limits on unilateral constitutional amendments.
With roughly 60 p.c voting “sure” to it on Thursday, the referendum creates a parallel reform mandate alongside BNP’s parliamentary majority.
These two mandates might not totally align, Shahan mentioned.
The BNP was sceptical concerning the July Nationwide Constitution referendum for months in the course of the transitional authorities, at instances signalling a “no”, till social gathering chief Tarique Rahman publicly endorsed a “sure” vote on January 30 – one thing the principle opposition Jamaat alliance was desirous to level out throughout campaigning.
Subsequently, “the BNP’s manifesto, to a big extent, conflicts with the July Constitution”, Shahan identified.
Throughout campaigning, the BNP pledged to again the implementation of the constitution if voters accredited it within the referendum. However Ahmad famous that the BNP’s earlier dissent on components of the constitution means the social gathering might not really feel obligated to implement each single reform in it.
Particularly, the BNP could also be against proposals for proportional illustration and the brand new design of an higher home, which, it has argued, may dilute massive parliamentary majorities beneath the present electoral system.
The dimensions of its election win signifies that the general public expects the BNP will uphold its campaign pledges, significantly on corruption and institutional reform. Subsequently, any choice to not pursue particular reforms would require public clarification, Ahmed mentioned.
However the sheer measurement of the BNP’s majority may make it simpler to proceed unchallenged by a weak opposition.
“Those that include a majority naturally have a lot better capability to work on coverage implementation and reform,” political analyst Dilara Choudhury mentioned. However such dominance in parliament additionally means much less accountability.
Shahan warned, “There’s a critical concern that, based mostly on political prices, we may return to confrontational politics once more.”
The Awami League issue
The landslide end result additionally reshapes Bangladesh’s social gathering system at a time when the Awami League is absent. Following Hasina’s brutal crackdown on protesters in July 2024, which killed about 1,400 individuals, the Awami League was banned from standing on this election.
Some observers have criticised this transfer, saying it could have been extra credible to permit voters to reject the social gathering via democratic means by refusing to vote for it.
As Bangladesh politics have been beforehand dominated by the BNP and Awami League, its absence has additionally created the potential of an asymmetrical political area dominated, now, by a single main social gathering, analysts say.
The outcomes of this election seem to indicate that this can be true.
The BNP has restricted incentive to facilitate the Awami League’s return to political life, Shahan famous. However he cautioned {that a} failure to ship reforms or efficient governance may reopen area for the Awami League’s revival if voters change into disillusioned with each conventional and reformist actors.
For now, in keeping with Shahan, post-election stability will rely on two components: whether or not opposition events settle for the outcomes and take part constructively in parliament, and whether or not the BNP makes use of its robust mandate to pursue inclusive reforms somewhat than majoritarian consolidation.
A diplomatic balancing act
The landslide end result locations the BNP on the centre of each home restructuring and regional realignment within the wake of the 2024 rebellion, mentioned Shahab Enam Khan, geopolitical analyst and professor of worldwide relations at Jahangirnagar College in Dhaka.
This election can have “speedy implications” for the area, he added.
Significantly, Bangladesh’s relationship with India, the place Hasina stays in exile, a lot to the anger of many in Bangladesh who want to see her extradited to face the loss of life penalty handed to her by the Worldwide Crimes Tribunal (ICT) in Bangladesh in November final yr, for ordering her forces to fireplace on protesters in 2024.
“The Sheikh Hasina issue will all the time stay … extradition will stay an agenda, however in actuality it might not occur given her relationship with political circles in Delhi,” Khan mentioned.
“This shall be a authorities which can obtain unprecedented help from all the worldwide powers, together with the regional neighbours,” Khan informed Al Jazeera. The USA is more likely to proceed its engagement initiated beneath the interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, whereas China will stay a key associate given its market-oriented strategy to Bangladesh, no matter which social gathering is in energy.
In consequence, relations with India – heat beneath Hasina’s rule – may change into extra transactional. “[Bangladesh’s] overseas coverage shall be very assured and that may make Bangladesh–India relationship rather more transactional … BNP will look ahead to a lot better cooperation from Delhi based mostly on reciprocity,” he mentioned.
On Pakistan, he famous, “Islamabad will proceed to have a great relationship with Dhaka as a result of traditionally it had a great relationship with each BNP and Jamaat … we’ll see commerce and funding ties bettering and probably some safety cooperation.”
However balancing ties with India, China, the USA and Pakistan concurrently might pose diplomatic challenges.
“Delhi would all the time be suspicious about Islamabad’s engagement and the US will all the time have considerations about Beijing’s engagement,” he mentioned.
In the end, nevertheless, Khan mentioned inner stability for Bangladesh will rely much less on geopolitics than on governance.
“Instability can come from many corners – lack of reform supply, weak financial efficiency and inflation,” he mentioned. The evolving relationship between BNP and opposition forces, significantly Jamaat, is an unknown variable.
Above all, Bangladeshi politics should not return to the outdated model of repression over debate.
“If BNP resorts to the identical insurance policies that Awami League has … cracking down on the general public with regards to criticism of overseas coverage … that shall be massively disastrous,” he mentioned, including that overseas coverage towards India and Pakistan “shall be closely monitored by the general public”.
Whether or not the brand new authorities embraces a reformed constitutional order or reverts to majoritarian governance will rely on the way it balances its parliamentary dominance, the July Constitution reform mandate, and rising geopolitical expectations.
The election has settled the query of energy; the sturdiness of Bangladesh’s post-uprising political order will hinge on how that energy is exercised.
