This Season’s Super Bowl Winner Will Be One Of These 7 NFL Teams

The NFL is a league built on parity and the idea that, in any given season, any team can rise from the bottom of the standings and compete for a championship. The 2025 season proved this concept, with the Patriots going from AFC East bottom-feeder to Super Bowl participant.

As we head into the 2026 season, every team’s fanbase is asking the same question: Why not us?

It’s a nice thought. But here, in reality, stories like last year’s Pats come along maybe once or twice a decade. Typically, we can whittle down the true Super Bowl contenders with reasonable accuracy before the season even begins. And that’s what I’ll be doing here. I’ve considered the title cases for all 32 teams and narrowed them down to a group of seven that can realistically win a Lombardi Trophy next February.

So let’s look at what makes these teams title contenders before examining the group of fringe contenders who just missed the cut, along with why they were left out.

One of these seven teams will win the Super Bowl:

The Rams were one unlucky two-point conversion away from earning home-field advantage in the playoffs, which may have been enough to get Sean McVay’s team to the Super Bowl. 

It would have been easy – and maybe even sensible – for the Rams to just run it back and hope for better luck. Instead, they traded for Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, added a lockdown cornerback in Trent McDuffie, and then lured Aaron Donald out of retirement.

They were already one of the favorites to hoist the Lombardi trophy before those additions. Now, they’re the clear favorites. They check all the boxes you look for in a title contender:

• A trustworthy head coach … check.
• Top-shelf quarterback play … check.
• A sturdy running game … check.
• Receivers who get open consistently … check.
• A dominant defensive line … check.
• A reliable secondary … also a check.

Myles Garrett’s addition performed a giant half in Aaron Donald popping out of retirement. (Ric Tapia/Getty Photos)

The acquisition of Garrett commanded quite a lot of the offseason consideration, however including McDuffie and Jaylen Watson to the cornerback room may very well be the strikes that propel L.A. over the championship hump. The Rams secondary may very well be pushed round and picked on final season. That’s not occurring with two bodily corners like McDuffie and Watson on the sector. Even when opposing quarterbacks can keep upright lengthy sufficient to get a cross off with Garrett and Donald collapsing the pocket, discovering open receivers might be a problem.

Extra issues exist on the offensive aspect of the ball, the place an harm to Davante Adams or Puka Nacua might depart the group missing in big-play skill. The offensive line is skinny, as effectively, and reigning MVP Matthew Stafford wants all of the safety he can get now that he’s getting into his age-38 season.

Nonetheless, that is the NFL’s most gifted roster that is led by one of many NFL’s finest coaches in Sean McVay. It is a Tremendous Bowl-or-bust season for Los Angeles.

The defending champs took just a few hits within the offseason, shedding working again Kenneth Walker and a handful of second-tier starters alongside the protection. Aside from that, that is largely the identical group that gained a title in February, and so they’d be the title favorites as soon as once more if not for L.A.’s busy offseason.

One factor we are able to financial institution on: Head coach Mike MacDonald may have his protection taking part in at an elite stage as soon as once more. The defensive position has been the important thing to the unit’s success, and all of its key items return in 2026. The Seahawks are gentle at cornerback however will play with three safeties as a rule, in order that’s extra of a minor concern than it could be for different groups. There’s no purpose to anticipate any falloff from this bunch. 

If security/slot defender Nick Emmanwori, an All-Rookie choice a 12 months in the past, makes the leap and performs at an All-Professional stage, the Seahawks’ protection could even enhance over final season.

There are some offensive issues with coordinator Klint Kubiak changing into the Raiders’ head coach. MacDonald went exterior the constructing to seek out his alternative however went again to Kyle Shanahan’s teaching tree to poach 49ers assistant Brian Fleury. Massive performs powered the Seahawks’ offense – and offset a few of quarterback Sam Darnold’s turnover points – so his major process might be protecting Seattle’s explosive play price up. 

If the first-time offensive coordinator can try this and assist Darnold lower down on the turnovers, Seattle might be simply as formidable because the loaded Rams.

Whether or not Seattle can repeat as Tremendous Bowl champion could hinge on Sam Darnold’s efficiency in 2026. (Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Photos)

The Ravens haven’t been a well-coached group the previous two seasons. If new head coach Jesse Minter can clear up penalties and protection busts on protection, it can go a great distance. And if new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, who comes over from Ben Johnson’s employees in Chicago, can get Lamar Jackson again to his MVP type, Baltimore can regain its place among the many AFC’s contenders after final 12 months’s disappointment.

The protection will nearly definitely be higher. Minter, one of many sharpest defensive minds within the sport, received top-10 outcomes out of a Chargers’ protection with far much less expertise than what he’ll be working with in Baltimore. The cross rush will get two main boosts with Nnamdi Madibuike getting back from harm and Trey Hendrickson becoming a member of from the rival Bengals. 

Depth is a priority, but when this unit is wholesome and Minter lives as much as the hype, this might be a championship-level protection.

The Ravens are hoping rookie head coach Jesse Minter can flip them again into contenders. (Stephen Maturen/Getty Photos)

Jackson’s play will decide if the offense can sustain. The 2-time MVP battled accidents all through 2026 and didn’t play his finest ball when he was on the sector. Jackson took far too many sacks final season, however he says he wasn’t as keen to depart the pocket final season due to the accidents and vowed to run extra now that he’s wholesome. That ought to assist the two-time MVP get his groove again and elevate this offense again into the top-10. 

The 2026 Chiefs confirmed us that rostering an elite quarterback isn’t sufficient to maintain a group in title rivalry. So, whereas it seems like Josh Allen is able to carrying the Payments to a Tremendous Bowl, just one or two issues must go mistaken for them to expertise their very own season from hell.

Buffalo has simply sufficient high quality round Allen to make this shortlist of contenders.  The offensive line, which powered one of many league’s finest run video games a season in the past, misplaced left guard David Edwards to free company, however all people else is again. Working again James Cook dinner is primed for an additional monster season, and the receiving corps added the perimeter risk it so desperately wanted with the commerce for D.J. Moore. No extra counting on Keon Coleman for downfield targets.

The Payments’ offense gained’t change a lot, however with Sean McDermott out as head coach, Buffalo’s protection is getting a makeover. First-year defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard has been a favourite amongst soccer nerds for years because of his work within the school ranks. McDermott ran a structurally sound protection, however good quarterbacks had no bother selecting it aside. Leonhard’s scheme will give them extra to consider. 

Denver’s Tremendous Bowl aspirations nonetheless hinge on quarterback Bo Nix. A fractured ankle robbed him of an opportunity to show he could lead on the Broncos to a Tremendous Bowl, however he’ll get one other crack at it with one other robust roster. 

Denver did lose a stout run defender in John Franklin-Myers and beginning security P.J. Locke, however the protection is stacked, and the entrance workplace used the cash saved from these departures so as to add some firepower to the passing recreation within the type of receiver Jaylen Waddle. All the things is in place for a Tremendous Bowl run … if the quarterback play is adequate.

Whether or not the Broncos can break by to the Tremendous Bowl beneath head coach Sean Payton will come right down to the play of QB Bo Nix (above). (Justin Edmonds/Getty Photos)

There might be a brand new voice in Nix’s ear this season, with head coach Sean Payton relinquishing play-calling duties to Davis Webb. The primary-time offensive coordinator is simply three years into his teaching profession and has by no means referred to as performs in a recreation that counts. It’s inconceivable to know the way he’ll deal with the monumental process; however even when he falters, having a Corridor of Fame play-caller as a “break glass in case of emergency” possibility lowers the priority.  

When you’re questioning how the Eagles managed to win 11 video games and one other NFC East title whereas the offense was imploding on and off the sector, simply look to the opposite aspect of the ball. Philadelphia’s protection completed as a top-three unit for a second 12 months in a row and carried the group again to the playoffs.

The ceiling may very well be even greater in 2026. The Eagles patched up the most important gap of their protection by including cornerback Riq Woolen to play reverse of star Quinyon Mitchell. Philly’s cross protection was stable final season however struggled to get off the sector on third down. Coordinator Vic Fangio prefers man protection in third-and-medium conditions, however with Adoree Jackson or Kelee Ringo getting torched, it wasn’t an efficient technique. Whereas Woolen isn’t an elite cowl nook by any means, he’s a ball-hawk who can create turnovers if groups repeatedly strive him. 

A secondary is as robust as its weakest hyperlink, and Philly’s weakest hyperlink might be sturdier this season.

Cornerback Riq Woolen gained the Tremendous Bowl final season after which joined a perennial contender in Philadelphia. (Perry Knotts/Getty Photos)

On the defensive position, the Eagles are banking on growth from younger gamers like Jalyx Hunt and Nolan Smith Jr. to make up for his or her quite a few offseason losses. In addition they added veteran edge rusher Jonathan Greenard, who comes over after a down season in Minnesota. If Philadelphia can get simply common cross rush manufacturing from its defensive ends, this may very well be the NFL’s finest protection, which is able to maintain the defending NFC East champs in rivalry even when the offensive points persist. 

The Texans are included right here solely out of respect for Demeco Ryans’ protection, which might have been adequate to tug Houston’s irritating offense by the AFC playoffs if not for C.J. Stroud selecting the worst time to play his worst-ever recreation. The Texans quarterback averaged 4.5 yards per try and threw 4 interceptions within the season-ending loss to the Patriots. Three of these picks had been thrown over a nine-play stretch that staked New England to a double-digit lead that felt insurmountable based mostly on how the Houston offense was taking part in.

So, why ought to we anticipate a special consequence subsequent January? 

For starters, Stroud is a significantly better quarterback than he confirmed final postseason. He is probably not the franchise savior he gave the impression to be after his rookie season, however he’s able to producing top-10 play for lengthy stretches. With a very elite protection, that’s adequate to make a run.

Houston additionally improved its offensive line, which has been the basis reason behind its issues over the previous few seasons. And with Stroud getting into his second season in coordinator Nick Caley’s offense, there ought to be fewer rising pains for the offense early on. 

If this offense will be simply mediocre, the Texans ought to run up one other double-digit season. If Stroud can keep away from one other postseason stinker, the ceiling is way greater.

These groups might sneak into the Tremendous Bowl — however they aren’t successful it.

The Patriots have a greater roster than they did a 12 months in the past, and new WR1 A.J. Brown is an ideal match for Drake Maye’s recreation. However the protection is due for regression towards a more durable slate of quarterbacks than in 2025, and the offensive line stays a piece in progress. 

This offense has the potential to succeed in some severe highs, however we’ve been saying that for years now, and Joe Burrow and Co. have but to provide a very elite season. Whereas the protection has improved, it nonetheless appears like a mediocre group at finest. 

The Lions nonetheless haven’t stuffed the Graham Glasgow-sized gap in the midst of its offensive line and are banking on a Dolphins castoff or a rookie to carry down the fort at proper deal with with Penei Sewell swinging over to the left aspect. Detroit wants its offensive line to return to elite standing to get this group again on observe for title rivalry. I’m unsure it may possibly.

The Jaguars are a corporation on the rise, however they’re nonetheless one other robust offseason – and one other leap from Trevor Lawrence – away from being a real title risk. If the protection avoids regression and Lawrence finds consistency, they’re able to a deep postseason run. Even then, it’s tough to think about them going toe-to-toe with the NFL’s prime contenders.

The roster is previous and already injured. If this had been Madden, and we might flip off accidents, the 49ers would have sufficient expertise to problem Seattle and Los Angeles within the NFC West. However we are able to’t, and so they in all probability gained’t.

Even Ben Johnson is aware of that the regression gods are out to get Chicago this season after driving final 12 months’s satan magic to a divisional title and a powerful playoff run. The Bears are headed in the precise course, however progress isn’t linear, and the division might be more durable, with Detroit and Minnesota probably to enhance.

Patrick Mahomes is coming off a late-season ACL tear, and the Chiefs made no significant enhancements to the roster exterior of including working again Kenneth Walker. Will probably be one other uphill climb simply to make the playoffs. If not for Mahomes, they’d be nowhere close to this checklist.