The wise guys got crushed last weekend.
It started with Oregon getting railroaded by Indiana. Then, Jacksonville fell apart in the fourth quarter against Buffalo, Philadelphia lost outright to San Francisco and Pittsburgh scored six points against Houston.
Las Vegas bookmaker John Murray told me the public “rolled.”
I’ve got four bets this weekend, and I’m too ready to sweat our Bills’ Super Bowl futures Saturday night. Remember, this isn’t the place for “locks” or five-team parlays. These are the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
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2025 Record: (39-51-6, -17.8 units)
Bills @ Broncos (-1.5, O/U 46)
I’m having déjà vu with the Bills in this spot.
It’s almost an identical scenario to last weekend’s game when the Jaguars closed a small favorite because people were lining up to fade Buffalo on the road against a more complete team.
Too bad Jacksonville had Trevor Lawrence instead of Josh Allen in the fourth quarter.
Buffalo’s offensive versatility and defensive confusion make it a tough out, and I wholeheartedly believe you get the best player in football with a Bills bet. If Allen brings his “A” game, it’ll be difficult for Denver to win.
The Broncos’ defense is very good, but the offense is just okay. If second-year starter Bo Nix outduels 17 in the playoffs, I’ll be sick to my stomach.
PICK: Bills (+1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points
Somehow, someway, the Bears keep winning.
Despite having a 5% chance of victory with five minutes remaining, Chicago scored two touchdowns and kept the Green Bay Packers out of the end zone.
“Improbable” clearly isn’t in the Bears’ team dictionary.
Up next, Matthew Stafford and the Rams roll into Soldier Field and the weather is horrible for throwing the ball. Wind gusts are projected to soar as high as 30 miles per hour off the lake and temperatures will feel like 2º.
Stafford is 1-9 in his last 10 games in the elements and the Rams have lost eight of their last 10 in Chicago. The Rams have also struggled to protect leads this season, while the Bears continue to rise like a phoenix in second halves.
Take the points.
PICK: Bears (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points or win outright
TWO-POINT TEASER: Bills +7.5 to Bears +10
The math is good here. Take the two underdogs and add more points. You knock Buffalo from +1.5 through 3 and 7 to +7.5 and make Chicago a double-digit underdog in a game where the total has dropped three points.
PICK: Bills +7.5 to Bears +10
CFP Championship: Indiana (-8.5, O/U 47) vs. Miami
I told y’all to bet Oregon against Indiana last Friday.
After siding with Indiana over Alabama, Ohio State and Oregon (the first time), I decided it was time to flip because the Hoosiers were too popular.
Oregon lost 56-22.
Sigh.
Now, IU is onto the national championship against a very physical Hurricanes team that has the best line play in college football. It has three Sunday guys on the defensive line and two first-rounders on offense.
That’s not to say Indiana isn’t a juggernaut, but the perception is reaching 2019 LSU levels. And Fernando Mendoza ain’t Joe Burrow. If the Canes protect the ball and limit penalties, there’s no reason they can’t hang around.
If I told you in August that Miami would play for a national title in its own backyard against Indiana and be an 8.5-point dog, you’d think I was insane.
PICK: Miami (+8.5) to lose by fewer than 8.5 points or win outright
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
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