Can MSI performance predict Worlds success?

Yearly, the Mid-Season Invitational (MSI) provides us what ought to be our first correct reply to considered one of League of Legends’ greatest questions: who is definitely the very best crew on the planet?

The strongest groups from internationally meet, and ultimately the very best of them are thrown into best-of-five sequence towards one another. By the tip of it, we have now a world champion.

Although Worlds arrives simply a few months later, issues usually look utterly totally different. Regardless of how dominant they’re, the MSI champion normally doesn’t find yourself lifting the Summoner’s Cup.

Hanwha Life Esports is the most recent crew to check that concept. HLE beat Bilibili Gaming 3–2 to win MSI 2026, with LYON surprisingly ending third and G2 Esports taking fourth. HLE has already secured its place at Worlds 2026, however can they convey residence League’s most prestigious trophy? Historical past says sure and no.

Whereas profitable MSI is a surprisingly poor predictor of who ultimately lifts the Summoner’s Cup, performing properly at MSI remains to be a robust indicator {that a} crew might make a deep Worlds run. That has change into much more obvious underneath MSI’s expanded format.

MSI has been performed yearly since 2015, with the plain exception of 2020, when the event was canceled due to the global pandemic. That provides us ten accomplished MSI-to-Worlds seasons earlier than 2026.

Throughout these ten tournaments, just one MSI champion has gone on to win Worlds in the identical yr. SK Telecom T1 did it in 2016. That’s it.

EDward Gaming received MSI in 2015 earlier than shedding within the Worlds quarterfinals. SKT received MSI once more in 2017 however misplaced the Worlds closing to Samsung Galaxy. RNG received MSI in 2018, 2021, and 2022, however by no means made it past the quarterfinals in any of these three Worlds runs.

G2 Esports got here shut in 2019, reaching the Worlds closing after their well-known MSI victory, whereas JD Gaming and Gen.G have each adopted MSI titles with Worlds semifinal exits in recent times.

Even Gen.G’s dominant 2025 season ended the identical method. They beat T1 within the MSI closing however ultimately fell to KT Rolster within the Worlds semifinals, whereas T1 went on to win Worlds as a substitute.

Total, the document for MSI champions seems like this:

A 60% semifinal fee is clearly nonetheless excellent. But when we try to make use of MSI to foretell the eventual World champion, a ten% success fee isn’t significantly convincing.

Throughout the identical ten seasons, there have been 40 top-four finishes at MSI, and 19 of these groups went on to succeed in the Worlds semifinals.

MSI finalists do even higher. Of the 20 groups that reached an MSI closing between 2015 and 2025, 12 later made it to the Worlds semifinals that very same yr.

There’s some apparent choice bias right here. Groups ending within the prime 4 at MSI are already among the many world’s strongest and usually come from its strongest areas, that means MSI efficiency can’t be handled as the only real purpose they subsequently succeed at Worlds.

What the numbers can inform us, nonetheless, is how regularly the groups that carry out finest at MSI stay among the many worldwide elite months later.

In each single season since MSI was launched, at the least one crew that completed within the prime 4 has gone on to succeed in the Worlds closing.

There’s additionally a reasonably clear distinction between the previous MSI format and the event we have now at present.

Earlier than 2023, MSI typically featured one consultant from every area. That created an apparent drawback if we wished to make use of the event as a Worlds preview.

A number of the finest groups on the planet merely didn’t attend the event.

Samsung Galaxy didn’t qualify for MSI earlier than profitable Worlds in 2017. Invictus Gaming was not there in 2018. FunPlus Phoenix missed MSI 2019, EDward Gaming missed MSI 2021, and DRX clearly was nowhere close to MSI earlier than finishing its miracle Worlds run in 2022.

MSI might hardly predict that these groups would win Worlds after they had by no means competed within the event within the first place. Riot modified that considerably in 2023.

The outcomes since then are fairly arduous to disregard.

In 2023, MSI’s prime 4 comprised JD Gaming, Bilibili Gaming, T1, and Gen.G. Three of them reached the Worlds semifinals.

In 2024, the highest 4 included Gen.G, Bilibili Gaming, T1, and G2. Once more, three reached the Worlds semifinals.

In 2025, Gen.G, T1, Anybody’s Legend, and Bilibili Gaming made up the highest 4. Gen.G reached one other Worlds semifinal, T1 received all the event, and Anybody’s Legend made the quarterfinals.

Put it collectively, and the distinction is placing.

From 2015 to 2022, 11 of 28 MSI top-four groups reached the Worlds semifinals, or 39.3%.

From 2023 to 2025, that rises to eight of 12, or 66.7%.

Much more impressively, each MSI finalist from these three years reached at the least the semifinals at Worlds:

That’s six out of six. It’s nonetheless a tiny pattern measurement, and three years of outcomes are nowhere close to sufficient to name it a rule. However to date, at the least, the expanded MSI has lined up a lot extra intently with what ultimately occurs at Worlds than the previous event did.

There’s additionally a barely ridiculous T1 statistic hidden in all of this. The final three League of Legends Worlds winners all completed close to the highest of MSI earlier within the yr.

They simply didn’t win it.

T1 completed third at MSI 2023 earlier than beating Weibo Gaming within the Worlds closing. They completed third once more at MSI 2024 earlier than happening to win Worlds towards BLG. Then in 2025, T1 completed second to Gen.G at MSI earlier than clinching a third consecutive World Championship.

Clearly, that doesn’t imply shedding MSI someway “improves” your possibilities of profitable Worlds. Most of that is merely T1 being T1.

HLE received MSI 2026, however traditionally, that doesn’t robotically make HLE the Worlds favourite. 9 of the earlier ten MSI winners failed to finish the double.

However MSI has been a lot better at figuring out Worlds contenders, particularly if we have a look at groups that reached the semifinals. For 2026, that group is HLE, BLG, LYON, and G2.

There isn’t a assure the streak will proceed, however greater than a decade of outcomes suggests at the least considered one of them might be round very late in Worlds.

So, can MSI efficiency predict Worlds success? To an extent. Successful MSI has hardly ever translated into Worlds victory, however ending close to the highest has persistently recognized groups able to making deep runs.

Virtually half of all MSI top-four finishes since 2015 have subsequently been adopted by a Worlds semifinal look. Underneath the expanded MSI format since 2023, that determine has risen to 66.7%.

MSI might not inform us precisely who will elevate the Summoner’s Cup. However it does a reasonably good job of telling us who belongs on the shortlist.