The NBA postseason tips off this weekend, as the Oklahoma City Thunder look to become the league’s first repeat champion since the 2017-2018 Golden State Warriors.
After an exciting play-in tournament concludes Friday night, we will be down to 16 teams, with the playoffs beginning early Saturday afternoon. Let’s take a look at every series that is set so far, and preview each from a betting perspective.
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No. 5 TORONTO vs. No. 4 CLEVELAND
The first playoff game will take place Saturday afternoon in Cleveland, as the Cavaliers are heavy -550 favorites (a $55 bet pays $10) to win the series.
While the Raptors are the underdogs, it is notable that they swept the season series against the Cavs, winning all three matchups. However, all of those games took place prior to Thanksgiving, and are not enough to compel me to pick the upset here.
The Cavaliers have had some disappointing early postseason exits in recent years, but the duo of James Harden and Donovan Mitchell will be too much for the Raptors to handle, and I expect a relatively quick series.
PICK: Cavaliers win series in exactly five games (+240)
No. 6 MINNESOTA vs. No. 3 DENVER
The Nuggets come into this matchup as -330 series favorites (a $33 bet pays $10).
Two years ago, the Timberwolves derailed the Nuggets’ hopes of back-to-back titles, eliminating the defending champs in the second round of the 2024 playoffs. Some will remember that series upset and predict a similar outcome, but this is a very different Timberwolves team.
The Wolves from two years ago had big man Karl-Anthony Towns to help defend Nuggets’ superstar Nikola Jokić, and also had rangy guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker to use against Jamal Murray. Those two names are now elsewhere, and the Nuggets should be able to exploit the Timberwolves’ weakness of fouling at a high rate.
The Nuggets averaged nearly 26 free-throw attempts per game in the regular season (fourth-most in the league), while the Timberwolves committed 21.2 fouls per game (third-most in the league).
I like the Nuggets to get some revenge this time around.
PICK: Nuggets win series in exactly six games (+450)
No. 6 ATLANTA vs. No. 3 NEW YORK
The Knicks are -275 series favorites, as they look to advance past the first round for the fourth consecutive season. They take on a Hawks squad that wasn’t expected to be here back in January, after starting the season 20-25 before winning 26 out of its next 36 games.
While that run is impressive, a lot of those wins came against tanking teams. I expect the Hawks to put up a respectable fight, but if we were to draft players from each team “playground style,” the Knicks would be picked early and often. They have the more talented roster, as well as a strong home-court advantage here.
PICK: Knicks win series in exactly six games (+425)
No. 5 HOUSTON vs. No. 4 LOS ANGELES LAKERS
The Rockets are the only favored team in the first round that does not have home-court advantage, as they come into this series at a hefty -600.
The Lakers will be without two of their three best players for the foreseeable future, as Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves recover from injuries. If the Lakers were healthy, they would be the favorites, but are currently too shorthanded for me to expect much.
I think the Rockets to roll through the beat-up Lakers.
PICK: Rockets win series in exactly four games (+275)
No. 7 PHILADELPHIA vs. No. 2 BOSTON
The Celtics are -900 series favorites, as they take on a 76ers team that defeated the Magic in the play-in tournament to earn a playoff bid.
The 76ers are without Joel Embiid for the time being as he recovers from appendicitis, but the team has experience playing without its star center. The Celtics and 76ers played four times this season, with each team winning twice, and Embiid only playing in two of those matchups.
The Celtics now have Jayson Tatum back and healthy, and they should win, but I’m surprised they are such a heavy favorite, especially in Game 1, where they are laying 12.5 points.
PICK: Celtics win series in exactly six games (+550)
No. 7 PORTLAND vs. No. 2 SAN ANTONIO
The Spurs are jumbo -2000 favorites to win their first playoff series of the post-Tim Duncan era. They went 2-1 against the Blazers in the regular season, and barring injury, San Antonio should advance with ease.
The Blazers are a good story and have had a surprising season to make it to the playoffs for the first time since trading franchise legend Damian Lillard in 2023. However, the Spurs are monster favorites for a reason, and probably won’t drop more than a game in this series.
PICK: Spurs win series in exactly five games (+210)
