We’ve got a big one on FOX Friday night.
The No. 3 Michigan Wolverines head to beautiful Champaign, Ill. to face the No. 10 Illinois Fighting Illini in what has all the makings of a sensational Big Ten college basketball game. Las Vegas says the game is a coin flip.
Saturday’s slate is solid, too, with Duke–Virginia, Arizona–Kansas, Iowa State–Texas Tech, Alabama–Tennessee and Arkansas–Florida to name a few.
Here are three bets I made today.
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No. 3 Michigan (-1.5, O/U 158) @ No. 10 Illinois
I hate how much I love this play.
Most people know Michigan is one of the nation’s top teams, but I’m not sure the masses are aware of how elite the Illini offense is. Ball movement is crisp, spacing is near perfect and almost everybody can shoot.
When the shots are falling, Illinois can beat anybody in the country.
Ken Pomeroy has the Illini at a 133.0 in offensive efficiency, the highest rating since he started tracking advanced basketball analytics in the late 90s.
Michigan’s defense is very, very good, but I think Illinois’ bigs provide a tough matchup because they’re so active away from the rim. And at the end of the day, I don’t think the orange and blue should be underdogs here.
PICK: Illinois (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points or win outright
No. 17 Alabama @ No. 22 Tennessee (-4, O/U 162.5)
Let’s turn the page to Saturday.
Knoxville will be up for grabs and oddsmakers believe we’re in for a shootout. DraftKings opened the total at 162.5, which is a tad high for a Tennessee game. Then again, Alabama tends to bring out the pace in everybody.
The Crimson Tide play at the second-highest tempo in the country. They run, run and run some more. Head coach Nate Oats prioritizes possessions and the Alabama style is simple: They want 3s and layups.
Rick Barnes has had some smothering defenses over the years at Tennessee, but I think this year’s bunch is a smidge overrated. You can score on ‘em.
I bet this total early and expect it to be higher tomorrow.
PICK: Over 162.5 points scored by both teams combined
Duke to make the Final Four
As I wrote last weekend, I was really hoping Michigan would beat Duke for selfish reasons. I wanted to get a bloated 8/1 on the Blue Devils to win the national championship, so naturally, they upset Michigan.
Now they’re as low as 4/1 to win it all.
Rats.
I still think the Final Four market is worth discussing. Duke was around +110 before the Michigan game, and now you can find -130. I don’t envision Duke losing another regular-season game and odds are good that Jon Scheyer’s squad will be the No. 1 overall seed in the East region.
They’ll be favorites in every game through the Elite Eight, and even though you’re a little late to the party, it’s still good math in my opinion.
By the way, a Duke Final Four ticket paired with Scottie Scheffler to win the Masters pays almost 6/1 if you’re into that sort of thing.
PICK: Duke (-130) to make Final Four
