21Shares has outlined a three-scenario value outlook for XRP in 2026, arguing that the token is transferring from a litigation-defined commerce to 1 more and more priced on ETF-driven demand and measurable on-ledger adoption.
In a Jan. 23 analysis note, 21Shares’ Matt Mena frames 2026 as a “defining turning level” during which XRP’s valuation turns into “anchored in institutional fundamentals” after the August 2025 settlement that ended the SEC case overhang. The agency says that decision eliminated a structural constraint that had restricted XRP’s upside “no matter underlying utility,” permitting the market to reprice to a brand new all-time excessive of $3.66 after which consolidate with the previous $2.00 ceiling appearing as help.
XRP Worth Predictions For 2026
21Shares describes the post-settlement regime as a more durable setting for the asset: much less narrative optionality, extra accountability. With the authorized cloud cleared, the notice argues XRP “can now not depend on courtroom hype or regulatory uncertainty to drive its valuation or excuse underperformance,” introducing a “promote the information” threat if utilization fails to scale and the market re-rates the asset on realized adoption relatively than authorized reduction.
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The agency’s view is that readability expands the addressable purchaser base and product floor space within the US “US-based establishments. Regulated funds and ETP issuers. Banks and cost corporations.” In 21Shares’ telling, these channels had been beforehand constrained by compliance threat, and their re-entry units up a brand new section of value discovery.
The second pillar is flows. 21Shares says US spot XRP ETFs have “basically rewritten” XRP’s demand profile, reaching greater than $1.3 billion in property beneath administration of their first month and logging a 55-day streak of consecutive inflows. The notice leans closely on a supply-demand argument, pairing ETF absorption with what it characterizes as unusually sticky retail positioning.
“Trade reserves are at a seven-year low of 1.7 billion XRP. Institutional ETF demand is colliding with a neighborhood that refuses to promote.” That collision, the agency argues, is the “main engine” for a doubtlessly non-linear repricing, whereas additionally warning that reflexivity cuts each methods if inflows sluggish.
To floor the reflexivity case, 21Shares factors to the primary 12 months of US Bitcoin spot ETFs as a template, citing practically $38 billion in internet inflows and a value transfer from roughly $40,000 to $100,000 inside 12 months. The excellence, in its view, is liquidity overhead: XRP launched its ETF period at a a lot smaller market cap than Bitcoin did at its debut, implying a bigger marginal affect per greenback of internet shopping for, supplied these early seize charges persist by means of 2026.
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The third pillar is utility, with 21Shares positioning XRPL as “monetary plumbing” for tokenization and stablecoin settlement. The notice highlights RLUSD’s growth to greater than 37,000 holders and a market cap enhance of over 1,800% from $72 million to $1.38 billion in beneath a 12 months, alongside XRPL DeFi TVL increasing practically 100x over two years to above $100 million. It additionally factors to the Multi-Function Tokens normal as a mechanism for establishments to subject RWAs with embedded metadata and compliance guidelines.
Nonetheless, 21Shares flags execution threat: progress is “evolutionary, not explosive,” and XRPL trails rivals on developer and consumer engagement, with competitors for RWA flows cited from Canton, Solana, and different ecosystems.
21Shares’ modeled peak ranges for 2026 put a base case at $2.45 (50% chance), a bull case at $2.69 (30%), and a bear case at $1.60 (implied -16%), with key swing elements being sustained ETF inflows, significant tokenization volumes, and RLUSD sustaining institutional traction.
At press time, XRP traded at $1.8792.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
