2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds: Mendoza Favored After Major Shakeup

The oddsboard for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft is undergoing a weekly overhaul. 

Let’s check out the odds for the next No. 1 pick as of Sept. 28.

2026 NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds (FanDuel)

Fernando Mendoza: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
LaNorris Sellers: +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)
Garrett Nussmeier: +460 (bet $10 to win $56 total)
John Mateer: +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total)
Rueben Bain, Jr: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Drew Allar: +2200 (bet $10 to win $55 total)
Arch Manning: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Ty Simpson: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Dante Moore: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)

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If you’re feeling like a new quarterback is atop the oddsboard every other week or so, your feeling is correct. 

This week, that QB is Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza.

Mendoza’s Hoosiers are 5-0, and he has 16 touchdowns to one interception. On the road against Iowa in Week 4, he completed 23 of 33 passes for 233 yards, two touchdowns and one pick. 

Last week, LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier was the +360 favorite. However, after the Tigers lost their first game of the season in Week 4, he dropped to third. 

In the defeat at the hands of Ole Miss, Nussmeier was 21-for-34 passing for 197 yards, a TD and a pick. 

The name that was second on the oddsboard last week, Penn State QB Drew Allar, enjoyed an even more precipitous drop, falling from +450 all the way to +2200 after his Nittany Lions lost at home to Oregon. In that game, he was 14-for-27 passing for 137 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. 

Allar is now sixth on the board. 

Third, at +500, was South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers, and he has now moved up to second. He had 153 passing yards and 81 rushing yards in a Week 4 win over Kentucky. 

One quarterback who was projected to be the first pick in next year’s draft at the beginning of the season has tumbled down the list, and that’s Arch Manning.

Manning and his Longhorns lost their season opener at Ohio State, a game in which Arch completed just 17-for-30 passes for 170 yards, one touchdown and one interception. 

While he has looked better in Texas’ three wins since then, his odds continue to fall behind the pack. He was +1400 last week. He’s now at +2500. 

Manning quarterbacks have a history of being selected at or near the top of the draft, and that still could end up being the case.

Arch’s grandfather Archie was the second pick in the 1971 NFL Draft, landing in New Orleans. 

Nearly three decades later, in 1998, his uncle Peyton was picked first by the Indianapolis Colts. Then, just six years after that, in 2004, his other uncle Eli went No. 1 to the New York Giants. 

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