Before the season began, many expected reigning Cy Young Award winners Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes and reigning MVPs Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani to defend their crowns as the top players in their respective leagues.
A few months later, a lot has changed, and a path has opened for some new contenders.
Tigers ace Skubal missed more than a month of action (but returned remarkably quickly) after undergoing an innovative elbow procedure. Skenes was one of Pittsburgh’s two All-Star representatives, but he entered the break with a 3.57 ERA. Yankees superstar Judge hasn’t played in more than a month after suffering a stress fracture in his rib.
And Ohtani … well, sorry to the other National League MVP hopefuls, but he’s still Shohei Ohtani.
Ahead of the second half, here are my midseason picks for the major awards.
NL MVP
As long as Ohtani holds up physically, you can lock this in now. Despite dealing with knee and biceps issues this year, Ohtani is cruising toward his fifth MVP award and third straight since joining the Dodgers. At the plate, he has the fifth-highest OPS in Major League Baseball. On the mound, he has the second-lowest ERA among all pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings.
Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong is providing value all over the field and Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber leads MLB in home runs, but there’s just not much anyone can do when one player is both one of the best hitters and one of the best pitchers in the sport.
In the mix: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs; James Wood, Nationals; Kyle Schwarber, Phillies
Shohei Ohtani recently hit his 300th career home run in the majors and is on pace for another milestone — his fifth MVP award. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
AL MVP
The MVP door is open in the American League with Aaron Judge injured, and Alvarez is seizing his opportunity.
The Astros slugger leads all qualified MLB players in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS and has a chance to win the Triple Crown. Alvarez leads the AL in home runs and RBIs and is just four points behind Rays All-Star Yandy Díaz in batting average.
In the mix: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals; Junior Caminero, Rays; Ben Rice, Yankees
NL Cy Young Award
Like the MVP race above, as long as “The Miz” holds up physically, this is his award to win. He leads all qualified MLB pitchers in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP and opponents’ batting average by a commanding number.
In fact, no qualified starter has ever held opponents to a lower batting average than what Misiorowski is doing now (.148).
Not including the shortened 2020 season, the only qualified starter in MLB history with a strikeout rate as high as Misiorowski’s over the course of a full season is Gerrit Cole in 2019.
In the mix: Cristopher Sánchez, Phillies; Zack Wheeler, Phillies; Chris Sale, Braves; Chase Burns, Reds
AL Cy Young Award
This is the closest battle in the American League. Blue Jays ace Dylan Cease has the most strikeouts and highest strikeout rate in the American League, and if by season’s end he starts to close the gap on Schlittler in innings pitched, then this conversation will be different.
But Schlittler sports an ERA that’s a half-run better — his 2.05 ERA and 0.94 WHIP are both the best marks among all qualified AL starters — and the 25-year-old has done it while making three more starts than Cease.
In the mix: Dylan Cease, Blue Jays; Joe Ryan, Twins; Parker Messick, Guardians
NL Rookie of the Year
Finally, we get to a closer race. Reds All-Star Sal Stewart, who has two more hits than Wetherholt and leads all qualified rookies in RBIs, has started to close the gap. Also keep an eye on Colorado’s TJ Rumfield, who leads all NL rookies in hits and OPS.
But the overall value Wetherholt is providing — he leads all NL rookies in WAR by a significant margin, in large part due to his exceptional defense — still has him ahead of the field.
In the mix: Sal Stewart, Reds; TJ Rumfield, Rockies; Foster Griffin, Nationals
Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt enters the second half of the season leading all of baseball in assists. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
AL Rookie of the Year
Through his first 93 big-league games, McGonigle has more walks than strikeouts. That is a remarkable feat for any player, let alone a 21-year-old in his first big-league season. Royals superstar Bobby Witt Jr. is the only American League player worth more bWAR than McGonigle, who has the fifth-highest on-base percentage in the AL.
If White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami comes back swinging the way he was prior to his hamstring strain, that could at least make this race a little more interesting.
In the mix: Munetaka Murakami, White Sox; Parker Messick, Guardians; Kazuma Okamoto, Blue Jays
NL Reliever of the Year
Miller has struck out nearly half of the batters he has faced, is a perfect 25-for-25 in save chances, and still hasn’t allowed an extra-base hit this season. He’s one of just six relievers all time with a strikeout rate over 48% in at least 30 innings of work, and he has the lowest ERA of that crop (0.91).
Don’t be surprised when he gets Cy Young votes.
In the mix: Jhoan Duran, Phillies; Raisel Iglesias, Braves; Dylan Lee, Braves
Mason Miller pitched to one hitter in the 2026 All-Star Game and, not surprisingly, struck him out. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
AL Reliever of the Year
When Jeff Hoffman stumbled out of the gates this year in Toronto, Varland ended the ninth-inning uncertainty.
Varland, a 15th-round pick by the Twins in 2019 who was named an All-Star for the first time this season, is a perfect 19-for-19 in save opportunities. He has a 1.10 ERA — the lowest mark of any AL closer — and has the highest strikeout rate among all qualified AL relievers.
In the mix: Cade Smith, Guardians; Bryan Baker, Rays; Jacob Latz, Rangers
NL Manager of the Year
The Phillies were 9-19, tied for the worst record in MLB and already 10.5 games back in the NL East, when Don Mattingly took over for Rob Thomson on April 28. They’re 45-24 under Mattingly and are now just two games back of the first-place Braves at the break.
Of course, if the Marlins do the unthinkable — they’re only four games back of first place — this award belongs to Miami manager Clayton McCullough.
In the mix: Clayton McCullough, Marlins; Walt Weiss, Braves; Oli Marmol, Cardinals
Since Don Mattingly took over as interim manager in late April, the Phillies have turned their season around. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
AL Manager of the Year
What a time on the South Side of Chicago. Just a year ago, the White Sox lost 102 games. Now, they enter the second half in first place in the AL Central, they have the second-best run differential in the American League, and the vibes couldn’t be better for this franchise on the rise.
In the mix: Kevin Cash, Rays; Skip Schumaker, Rangers; Stephen Vogt, Guardians
