COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I’m a brand new subscriber and simply needed to say thanks. Your work has given me an actual understanding of how time and worth work together, and it’s outstanding how your forecasts keep away from the bias that pervades everybody else’s predictions. Even with all of the geopolitical noise, gold dropped into June simply as you forecasted in the beginning of the yr. It simply proves that every thing hinges on what folks imagine.
Thanks for the schooling.
Shane
REPLY: What I’ve all the time discovered is that TIME is extra necessary than PRICE. You may have a finite period of time and that dictates the pattern. PRICE is secondary. You possibly can have a worth goal, however when you run out of TIME, the sport is over.
TIME and PRICE are two totally separate forecasts that should align to verify a significant market turning level. PRICE alone is meaningless with out the right timing.
The Primacy of Time
TIME is the dominant and extra necessary issue . It’s the “cloth of the universe,” not only a part of market evaluation. The central concept is {that a} market transfer reaching a particular worth stage isn’t important until it happens at a predetermined cut-off date.
Value as a Secondary Goal
Value targets are decided by patterns and reversals, however they’re all the time secondary and have to be “earned” by the market. Within the Down, I had supplied a number of worth aims (e.g., for the Dow: 18,500, 23,000, 40,000, 55,000, 65,000). The bottom line is that reaching one goal earlier than the TIME goal signaled the following worth stage turns into doable.
Markets are seen as a collection of related occasions (a “wave of contagion”). By understanding the “hidden order” inside this obvious chaos, one can outline situations to navigate the market, reasonably than attempting to foretell it with one-dimensional certainty. Those that argue Random Walks are incapable to seeing each PATTERNS in addition to TIME. As Einstein mentioned, God doesn’t play cube with the universe.
