When Fundrise’s Innovation Fund (VCX) listed on the NYSE on March 19, 2026, its web asset worth was $18.97 a share. Inside days, retail traders momentarily bid the value above $400. That is greater than 20X NAV, a premium so wealthy it made 1999 look accountable.
As a shareholder locked up till September 19, 2026, I’ve had a entrance row seat to the entire spectacle. I wrote concerning the psychology of that have in my companion put up: What It’s Like To Be A Startup Employee With A 6-Month Lockup.
This put up is concerning the math – calculating VCX’s NAV estimate. As a result of no matter what the share worth does based mostly on retail sentiment, the NAV supplies the bottom case, basic state of affairs of what the shares are actually value.
Estimating a closed-end enterprise fund’s NAV takes three fundamental steps. Let me present you the way, so you’ll be able to run the numbers your self every time a brand new funding spherical hits the headlines.
VCX NAV Estimate Step 1: Calculate The Dilution-Adjusted Markup For Every Holding
When an organization raises at a brand new valuation, you’ll be able to’t simply divide the brand new post-money valuation by the previous one. New cash dilutes present shareholders, together with VCX.
Take Anthropic. At VCX’s $19/share itemizing NAV, roughly 20% of the fund was in Anthropic at a ~$180 billion valuation. Anthropic then raised $65 billion at a $965 billion post-money valuation. Subtract the brand new cash and the pre-money valuation is $900 billion. So present shares marked up 5X, not 5.4X. Nonetheless a spectacular end result, however it’s at all times good to try to be extra exact when actual cash is at stake.
One piece of vocabulary earlier than we proceed, as a result of it journeys individuals up. A 5X markup means the place is now value 5 instances what it was. In different phrases, it GREW by 4X its authentic worth. Maintain that distinction in thoughts, as a result of it is key to Step 2.
Run the identical math throughout the highest holdings:
- Anthropic: $180 billion to $900 billion pre-money = 5.0X markup (grew by 4.0X)
- OpenAI: ~$500 billion to $730 billion pre-money after elevating $122 billion, with a focused September IPO above $1 trillion = ~1.5X markup now, ~1.9X by lockup expiration (grew by ~0.9X)
- Anduril: $30.5 billion to $56 billion pre-money after its $5 billion Collection H = 1.84X markup (grew by 0.84X)
- Databricks: $134 billion to $175 billion if the rumored spherical closes = 1.31X markup (grew by 0.31X)
- SpaceX: now public after its June IPO and marked to market day by day = ~1.8X markup on the fund’s prior carrying worth (grew by ~0.8X)
Fortunately, we will simply enter these publicly reported figures into AI to assist us make the calculation. Nevertheless, even nonetheless, it’s essential to evaluate the work.
VCX NAV Calculation Step 2: Multiply Every Development A number of By Its Portfolio Weight
A 5X markup on a 1% place is a rounding error. A 5X markup on a 20% place is important. The components is:
NAV development contribution = portfolio weight X (markup a number of minus 1)
Why minus 1? As a result of the unique place is already sitting contained in the $19 beginning NAV. You solely add the expansion, not the entire new worth.
Anthropic’s slice of the fund at itemizing was 20.5% of $19, or $3.90 per VCX share. After a 5X markup, that slice is value $19.50. However the fund does not achieve $19.50, as a result of it already had the $3.90. The brand new worth created is $19.50 minus $3.90, or $15.60 per share. And $15.60 divided by $19 equals 82%, which is strictly 20.5% X 4.0.
Multiply by 5 as a substitute of 4 and you would be counting the unique stake twice.
Now run the highest holdings by means of the components:
- Anthropic: 20.5% X 4.0 = +82% to NAV all by itself
- OpenAI with a September IPO: 10% X 0.9 = +9%
- Anduril: 7% X 0.84 = +5.9%
- Databricks: 17.5% X 0.31 = +5.4%
- SpaceX: 5% X 0.8 = +4%
- Remainder of the portfolio (Ramp, Canva, and others) at a modest 12% development: +4.8%
Add up all six contributions and also you get 111% whole NAV development, which takes $19 to roughly $40. Anthropic’s 82 factors characterize almost 74% of that development. In different phrases, of each greenback of recent worth VCX created since itemizing, about 74 cents got here from one firm. This must be each thrilling and regarding.
Thrilling, as a result of VCX has successfully been a concentrated wager on Anthropic, and thus far that wager has paid off spectacularly. Regarding, as a result of if Anthropic stumbles, VCX’s NAV development will gradual and even decline. Focus cuts each methods.
The optimist’s counter is that the remainder of the portfolio has great upside too, and it hasn’t absolutely proven up within the marks but. Anduril, for instance, is seeing secondary market demand at virtually double its newest funding spherical valuation. If even one or two extra holdings go on an Anthropic-like run, immediately’s garnish turns into tomorrow’s predominant course.
Step 3: Stack The Contributions In {Dollars} Per Share
Begin at $19 and add all of it up.
The maths factors to a NAV of roughly $40/share proper when the VCX lockup expires on September 19, 2026.
This is how the estimate evolves throughout three time frames for 2026 alone. All NAV estimates are based mostly on reported fundraising valuations and anticipated IPO pricing, not on secondary market exercise or the place shares may commerce after itemizing.
At present (July 2026): ~$37/share. Anthropic’s Collection H closed in late Could, so the markup ought to already be mirrored within the fund’s newest marks, together with SpaceX buying and selling publicly.
Lockup expiration (September 19, 2026): ~$40/share. This assumes the Databricks spherical closes and OpenAI completes its focused September IPO at round $1 trillion.
12 months-end 2026: ~$45/share, with $50 in play. Anthropic has filed confidentially to go public. If it costs anyplace close to its final spherical with even a modest pop, that single place provides one other $3 to $4 of NAV due to its focus.
In fact, the bear case exists too. If AI sentiment cracks earlier than the marks get taken, if Databricks does not shut, and if the IPO window slams shut, NAV sits nearer to $37. After dwelling by means of the 2000 dot-com bust from a Wall Road buying and selling desk, I refuse to mannequin solely sunshine. Then once more, if the IPO window is closed, this makes VCX extra worthwhile because it’s one of many solely methods the general public can personal these personal AI corporations.
What If Anthropic Turns into A $2 Or $3 Trillion Firm?
Now let’s dream just a little larger, as a result of I really suppose Anthropic can be sturdy when it IPOs. The corporate crossed a $47 billion income run-rate earlier this 12 months. On this market, I may see Anthropic turning into a $2 trillion firm in 2027 and a $3 trillion firm in 2028. Nvidia and Apple have proven the market has no downside paying up for dominant compounders.
Is that my base case? No. A $2 trillion valuation in 2027 implies roughly 40X the present income run-rate. However after watching Anthropic go from $180 billion to $965 billion in beneath a 12 months, I’ve realized to not cap my creativeness at what feels affordable. Anthropic’s income may develop to a $100 billion run charge in 2027, make a 20X income a number of extra affordable.
Anthropic’s slice of the fund at VCX itemizing was value $3.90 per VCX share (20.5% of $19). That $3.90 is the seed that compounds:
- At $965 billion immediately: $3.90 X 5.0 = $19.50/share. Anthropic alone is now value greater than your complete fund was at itemizing.
- At $2 trillion in 2027 (~10.5X after dilution): ~$41/share from Anthropic alone
- At $3 trillion in 2028 (~15.7X after dilution): ~$61/share from Anthropic alone
Layer in the remainder of the portfolio persevering with to compound, with OpenAI public, Databricks marked up, Anduril rising into the protection growth, and SpaceX buying and selling, then subtract the ~1.85% annual administration payment, and the estimates appear like this:
- Finish of 2027: ~$60 to $68/share
- Finish of 2028: ~$80 to $95/share
From an $18.97 itemizing NAV, that will be a 4-5X in beneath three years. With out paying a single greenback of premium.
However discover what else occurs. At $2 trillion, Anthropic is roughly 62% of the fund. At $3 trillion, about 70%, assuming no development within the different holdings. In fact, that’s unlikely. If Fundrise trims the place to rebalance, the NAV stays the identical however the future torque drops. The opposite positions ought to proceed to develop too.
What This Means For An Investor In VCX
Let’s make it concrete. An investor who put $100,000 into VCX pre-listing owns about 5,260 shares. At NAV alone, with zero premium (or low cost):
- 12 months-end 2026: roughly $237,000
- Finish of 2027: roughly $342,000
- Finish of 2028: roughly $460,000
A 4.6-bagger in beneath three years is an exceptional end result by any customary. However discover it is a great distance from the $1+ million some shareholders are dreaming about. That fantasy requires the market to maintain paying a fats premium to NAV, which brings me to an important a part of this put up.
The Premium Is The Threat, Much less So The Portfolio
This is the ultimate dose of humility each VCX shareholder wants. The NAV roughly doubling and the share worth falling greater than 80% from its peak are each true on the identical time.
VCX is a closed-end fund. There isn’t any creation-and-redemption mechanism tethering the value to NAV. Retail traders who paid 20X NAV weren’t shopping for a portfolio. They have been shopping for a lottery ticket on shortage, since VCX was one of many solely methods the general public may personal Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX in a single public ticker.
That shortage is now on a countdown clock. SpaceX is already public. OpenAI is focusing on 4Q2026 to IPO. Anthropic has filed confidentially and will listing on the finish of 2026, or 2027. Each IPO provides traders a approach to purchase every firm immediately, so the premium ought to naturally erode over time, until VCX continues to spend money on the subsequent promising personal AI firm.
The important thing phrase is “over time,” as a result of the sequencing issues enormously. The longer VCX’s holdings keep personal, the longer the shortage premium survives. This is the reason the Databricks CEO publicly guiding toward a 2027 IPO as a substitute of 2026 is welcome information for shareholders. Databricks is a high three holding, and yearly it stays personal is one other 12 months VCX stays one of many solely tickets to the present.
Anthropic is the fascinating wildcard. If it IPOs after the September 19 lockup expires, I believe the premium ought to proceed. An Anthropic debut at ~$1 trillion may get bid up towards $2 trillion given the demand and basic development. That might ship VCX’s NAV upward and reignite enthusiasm for the fund on the precise second shareholders can lastly promote.
So when the lockup releases its wave of recent provide, the larger query will not be what the NAV is. It will likely be what premium of NAV the market continues to be prepared to pay, and the way shortly the IPO calendar dismantles the shortage that premium is constructed on.
My math says the NAV retains climbing. It says nothing concerning the premium.
Modeling In Mania Is Troublesome
By no means in my wildest goals did I believe VCX would go up 3X, 5X, 10X, 20X put up itemizing, given I deal with fundamentals. Additional, as a FIRE investor with no regular paycheck, I can’t afford to be too incorrect. However retail enthusiasm is a variable traders should now take into account. We noticed it with meme inventory mania in 2021, and the Reddit military has solely grown since. There’s precedent.
Since VCX’s itemizing in March 2026, hyper AI enthusiasm has cooled, as seen within the share costs of hyperscalers akin to Google, Meta, and Microsoft. Microsoft faces extra of a long-term structural query, given the concern amongst software program traders that AI will make conventional software program irrelevant. As a long-term investor, I view releasing steam as a GOOD factor for sustainability.
The largest catalyst that would reignite VCX mania is Anthropic going public AFTER VCX’s lockup expires. Sitting right here in San Francisco, I am 90% sure the hype for an Anthropic IPO can be uncontrolled. It might find yourself probably the most in-demand IPO in historical past. In that state of affairs, demand for VCX ought to surge together with it.
And there’s precedent for a way excessive VCX can fly. It hit $380 in March (increased intraday) and over $250 in Could. In the meantime, Anthropic will probably be extra worthwhile in October 2026 and past than it was within the spring, due to continued development. Identical retail depth plus a much bigger underlying asset means mania may conceivably bid VCX even increased than earlier than.
Estimating What Might Occur With Anthropic IPO and VCX NAV
I assign a 65% likelihood the Anthropic IPO comes after the VCX lockup. If it does, I put the chances of retail mania returning at 70%. If Anthropic lists earlier than the lockup, I assign solely a 15% likelihood of mania, dependent totally on how effectively Anthropic trades put up itemizing.
Within the no-mania eventualities, I anticipate VCX to easily commerce round its estimated NAV, plus or minus 15%. Mix all of it collectively and I get roughly a 50% likelihood of one other mania-driven premium. A coin flip on fireworks, with a rising NAV because the comfort prize. I will take these odds.
Given my shares are locked up anyway, my ideally suited setup is perverse: VCX dips beneath my ~$40 estimated NAV, I accumulate extra, and THEN the market learns the Anthropic IPO is coming in October or later, reigniting mania and boosting the value to $100+. Purchase the basics, get the frenzy free of charge.
It is enjoyable to recreation out upside eventualities with a plan. However no matter occurs, I am glad if VCX merely trades round its estimated NAV. The NAV has grown considerably since itemizing, and I consider it’ll continue to grow for the subsequent a number of years. Mania is a bonus. The portfolio is the funding.
Disclaimer and Reader Questions
Earlier than making any funding, please do your personal due diligence and solely make investments what you’ll be able to afford to lose. Nothing right here is restricted funding recommendation for you. That is merely how I am eager about my very own shares, and our circumstances, monetary objectives, and time frames are totally different.
Do you personal VCX, and if that’s the case, did you purchase pre-listing at NAV or post-listing at a premium? What does your personal NAV math say, and the place do you suppose the premium settles after the September lockup expiration?
Make investments At NAV, Not At A Premium
I simply spent a complete part constructing likelihood bushes to mannequin retail mania. You recognize what requires zero likelihood bushes? Shopping for at NAV.
If this put up taught you something, it is that entry worth determines all the things. Traders who purchased VCX at its ~$19 NAV pre-listing or decrease are sitting on a possible double based mostly on fundamentals alone. Traders who paid a 10X premium or larger are hurting regardless of proudly owning the very same portfolio. Identical Anthropic, identical OpenAI, wildly totally different outcomes. The one variable was the value they paid to get in.
Fundrise has reportedly filed to launch VCX 2, although the timing and remaining construction stay unsure. If a sequel launches, the window that issues is the pre-listing one, the place you purchase at NAV like the primary VCX’s largest winners did. Present Fundrise traders can be notified first, and you’ll open an account here to get on the listing. Free to enroll, and it beats setting a worth alert and praying.
Within the meantime, each fund on Fundrise’s platform, from personal actual property to non-public credit score, transacts at NAV. No premium to overpay, no lockup-expiration provide waves, no mania variable to handicap. The whole second half of this put up, all of the premium modeling and likelihood bushes, merely does not apply. You get the basics with out the frenzy. Identical three-step logic, utilized to buildings and credit score as a substitute of AI unicorns.
Disclosure: Fundrise is a long-time sponsor of Monetary Samurai, and I’m an investor in Fundrise funds, together with the Innovation Fund (VCX). All NAV figures on this put up are my very own estimates based mostly on publicly reported funding rounds, not Fundrise’s official marks. This isn’t funding recommendation.
