Bitcoin’s return to $100,000 is still a popular target throughout the marketplace for 2026, however one bearish outlook argues that the transfer is changing into much less reasonable with the price action weakening beneath the $80,000 value degree.
This bearish outlook came from a crypto analyst often known as Alex Mason on the social media platform X, who predicted that Bitcoin won’t hit the $100,000 value degree once more this yr as a result of its value motion is in a managed lure inside an ascending channel.
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Bitcoin’s Ascending Channel Could Have Been A Lure
Bitcoin has not traded above $100,000 in 2026 and with the calendar now nearly in the midst of the yr, the timeframe for a restoration above six figures is shrinking fast. The worth motion over the previous two months has as an alternative been outlined by an ascending channel, with Bitcoin forming gradual larger highs and better lows from its February low simply above $60,000. The higher boundary has acted as resistance a number of occasions, whereas the inexperienced decrease trendline has served as the principle help conserving the restoration alive.
Nevertheless, that very same channel is pointing to a bearish argument. An ascending channel can look bullish on the floor as a result of value is shifting larger, however it could actually additionally develop into a distribution construction when every push upward loses momentum. Based on Mason, Bitcoin’s sluggish rise contained in the channel has created pretend power, giving retail merchants the impression {that a} breakout again to $100,000 continues to be constructing.
The necessary second that exposed the pretend power was the move into the $82,000 CME hole. Bitcoin reached that CME hole in early Could, accomplished the goal, after which was rejected a number of occasions between Could 6 and Could 11. This was a textbook lure before the next leg down.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @AlexMasonCrypto On X
Bitcoin’s Odds Of Hitting $100,000 In 2026
As proven within the chart above, Bitcoin is returning to the decrease half of the channel, placing the inexperienced help line below stress. If that help breaks, the construction would now not seem like a gentle restoration and the start of a push to a brand new backside.
The primary stage to a brand new backside is a breakdown from the ascending channel. From there, the following goal is round $70,000, adopted by a deeper move to new lows at $60,000. The chart even extends the bearish path deeper, with a dotted projection shifting down to as low as $50,000 by early July.
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A rally to $100,000 would require confidence, liquidity, and robust follow-through above resistance above $82,000. Bitcoin can even have to reclaim the 200-day MA round this identical degree. Based on prediction market Kalshi, there’s only a 32% likelihood that the Bitcoin value will break above $100,000 once more earlier than January 2027.
Featured picture from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
