Given where things stand now, a few days before the College Football Playoff national championship game between No. 1 Indiana and No. 10 Miami, it’s worth looking back at Week 8 of the AP Poll, which was released on Oct. 12.
In that particular version of the rankings, Miami checked in at No. 2 in the nation following a fifth straight victory to begin the season. The Hurricanes had assembled what was, to that point, arguably the strongest résumé in the country by beating then-No. 6 Notre Dame, Bethune Cookman, then-No. 18 South Florida, Florida and then-No. 18 Florida State. A good enough run to earn head coach Mario Cristobal and his team 13 first-place votes.
One spot below Miami, at No. 3 overall, was Indiana. By then, the Hoosiers had strung together three easy non-conference victories before annihilating then-No. 9 Illinois (63-10), surviving on the road at Iowa (20-15) and knocking off then-No. 3 Oregon (30-20) at Autzen Stadium. For its efforts, Indiana received three first-place votes.
Bested only by top-ranked Ohio State, which claimed 50 first-place votes, that was the moment when the college football world came closest to predicting what will unfold at Hard Rock Stadium on Monday night. For as remarkable as this year’s national championship game might seem on paper, it didn’t seem all that farfetched for a brief period of time three months ago. These are, and always have been, really good teams.
So who wins?
Here’s my national championship prediction:
CFP National Championship Game: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 10 Miami (Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Winner: Indiana
Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti leads the team out of the tunnel before the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. (Photo by CFP/Getty Images)
Let’s assume, for argument’s sake, that the overall talent levels for Miami and Indiana are equal. That even with wildly contrasting roster compositions — the Hurricanes have 45 former four- and five-star prospects; the Hoosiers only have seven — the lineups taking the field on Monday night can be thought of as mirror images of each other when it comes to skill, health and overall football intelligence. Player for player, everything is equal.
Instead, amid this particular exercise, the national championship game comes down to nothing more than coaching. A significant edge for the Hoosiers.
Penalties and special teams competency are two tried-and-true indicators of how well-coached any given football program really is. Teams with strong metrics in those two categories are usually disciplined, precise and employ a heightened attention to detail in areas of the game that are quite easy to overlook. More things that favor Indiana.
[CFP: The Ultimate Indiana-Miami CFP National Championship Lineup]
The Hoosiers common the second-fewest penalty yards per sport of any staff within the nation at 26.9, trailing solely Army in that exact class. In addition they rank fifth nationally in FEI Particular Groups Scores, behind solely Iowa, Penn State, Nebraska and Ole Miss. That Indiana blocked a punt within the latter phases of its blowout win over No. 5 Oregon provided additional proof of head coach Curt Cignetti’s dedication to the little issues, no matter circumstance or rating.
Miami hasn’t matched that degree of competency this season, struggling in these areas relative to elite competitors. The Hurricanes enter the nationwide title sport ranked eighty fifth in penalty yards per sport (57.1) and forty sixth in FEI Particular Groups Scores. Put merely, the Hoosiers are a better-coached staff.
And now, let’s revisit the overarching thought experiment from the start of this breakdown, the one which assumed expertise was even throughout the board. In actuality, the Hoosiers might need benefits at quarterback, extensive receiver, inside defensive position, linebacker, perimeter cornerback and security.
So when push involves shove, when the ball is lastly kicked on Monday evening, neither the enjoying subject nor the teaching can be degree. And that’s why Indiana has a great opportunity to finish its dream season.
Michael Cohen covers school soccer and school basketball for FOX Sports activities. Observe him at @Michael_Cohen13.
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