It’s not just ovens experiencing blistering heat this holiday season. The stove is sizzling hot after the first major free agent flew off the board on Thanksgiving eve.
Right-hander Dylan Cease reportedly signed with the Toronto Blue Jays on a massive seven-year, $210 million contract that will take him through his age-36 season. Cease, the top starting pitcher on the market this winter, has eclipsed more than 200 strikeouts and at least 32 starts in each of the past five seasons. These days, that type of durability is unheard of. No other pitcher in the majors has completed more than three 200-strikeout seasons in the past five years.
Cease recorded the highest swing-and-miss rate (33.4%) in the majors for the Padres this year, even as his overall numbers were more underwhelming (4.55 ERA, career-high 21 home runs allowed) with familiar command issues in his walk year. Still, Cease is one year removed from finishing fourth in Cy Young award voting, and his 3.56 FIP and 3.43 expected ERA suggests he ran into some bad luck and poor defense in San Diego this past season.
Weak defense shouldn’t be a problem in Canada. Cease joins a dynamic Blue Jays team hungry to finish the job after their booming World Series appearance that forced a Game 7 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Cease’s long-term pact is the largest pitching contract in franchise history. Let it be known: the Jays aren’t messing around.
Here’s what next for the Blue Jays, Padres, and the starting-pitching market after Cease’s deal:
What’s next for Toronto
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The defending American League champions got their front-of-the-rotation starter nearly two weeks before the winter meetings, showing the high level of aggression that many in the industry expected from the Blue Jays after their successful run to the Fall Classic. Cease’s 29.8% strikeout rate was the third-highest among all qualified major-league pitchers this year. Only Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet induced strikeouts at a higher clip in 2025. Cease’s elite whiff rate is exactly what the Blue Jays needed to add firepower to the rotation.
With Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt departing for free agency, the Blue Jays had an obvious need for a top starting pitcher this offseason. Cease boosts a strong rotation led by Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Jose Berrios, and Shane Bieber, who unexpectedly opted in with the Blue Jays for $16 million in 2026 just days after falling to the Dodgers in the World Series. At the time, Bieber’s decision seemed like it could be the best news of Toronto’s offseason — particularly with his salary being a steal for the team. But it turned out the Jays front office had a bolder commitment in mind.
Gausman and Bieber will become free agents after the 2026 season, so Cease’s long-term deal will help keep the Blue Jays in contention beyond next year. While the rotation looks set for Toronto, the organization still has to re-sign its headlining free-agent: homegrown shortstop Bo Bichette. The Blue Jays are committed to spending big this winter after getting a taste of the biggest stage in baseball. The megadeal for Cease shouldn’t stop them from securing Bichette, who is mutually interested in staying up north.
What’s next for San Diego
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Cease helped lead the Padres to the playoffs in each of his two seasons in San Diego, and it’s unclear how they’ll aim to fill his void. But it’s not as if this is a surprise. They floated his name at July’s trade deadline before opting to retain him, and his scoreless outing against the Cubs in the National League Wild Card series was always expected to be his last start for the Padres. Cease’s departure is part of why this offseason is so uncertain for the Friars.
Besides the Baltimore Orioles, arguably no other contender needs starting pitching more than San Diego. In addition to Cease, the rotation also lost right-hander Michael King to free agency. Yu Darvish will miss the entire season due to elbow surgery, which is his second major elbow operation and could be career-ending. Joe Musgrove, at least, will return from his 2024 Tommy John surgery, but it’s anyone’s guess how effective he’ll be after missing the 2025 season and how long it will take to find his form. As of now, Nick Pivetta will begin the season as their ace after he recorded a career-best 2.87 ERA in 31 starts for San Diego this year.
In addition to the precarious state of the rotation, the Padres have the challenge of competing in the cutthroat NL West under new rookie manager Craig Stammen — all under the backdrop of a potential franchise sale. Outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr.’s name has been floated in trade talks this offseason as the Padres try to balance multiple high-cost agreements, particularly given the exorbitant long-term contracts of Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts. Despite all the moving parts and question marks surrounding the club, acquiring an established starter to stabilize the rotation remains the Padres’ biggest need.
What’s next for the starting-pitching market
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With the top arm off the board and headed to Canada for the next seven seasons, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, King, Tatsuya Imai, Nick Martinez, Bassitt, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are among the upper-tier free-agent starters still looking to be signed before Opening Day rolls around. We have seen the starting-pitching market gain traction in recent days, with Sonny Gray going to the Red Sox and Grayson Rodriguez going to the Angels. All of that movement could force other contenders to get impatient and show more urgency for a top arm before it’s too late. Expect fierce competition for the top-flight starters remaining, especially Valdez, Suarez and King.
Deesha Thosar covers Major League Baseball as a reporter and columnist for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
