Bitcoin surged previous $121,000 immediately, pushing in the direction of its all-time excessive because the fourth quarter of 2025 kicked off with renewed momentum for Bitcoin.
The rally follows a robust September end, when Bitcoin gained about 5% to shut round $114,000 — a efficiency that considerably defied Bitcoin’s status for seasonal weak point.
Traditionally, when September has ended within the inexperienced, Bitcoin has typically gone on to publish outsized fourth-quarter positive factors. Knowledge from Bitcoin Journal Professional shows that in years comparable to 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, fourth-quarter rallies averaged greater than 50%.
That seasonal pattern has already earned October the nickname “Uptober” amongst merchants. Since 2015, the month has produced common positive factors of 21.8%, with November including one other 10.8%.
If historical past rhymes, Bitcoin could possibly be on observe to clear $150,000 earlier than the top of the 12 months.
Bitcoin all-time excessive coming?
In response to Bitcoin Journal Professional information, Bitcoin has climbed almost 3% in 24 hours, advancing from round $117,500 to simply over $121,000. During the last month, Bitcoin has notched a acquire of greater than 9%, rising from roughly $110,700.
On a year-to-date foundation, Bitcoin has delivered a return of 27%, underscoring its resilience regardless of ongoing volatility throughout broader markets.
With costs now lower than 3% away from the all-time excessive of over $124,000, it appears just like the stage is about for a breakout if shopping for strain continues.
Bitcoin’s bullish momentum
This newest surge got here as traditional economic metrics reeled from the U.S. authorities’s shutdown at midnight after Congress did not move a funding invoice. With Wall Avenue beneath strain and financial information releases now on maintain, traders flocked to laborious property.
This 12 months’s positive factors also build on April’s halving occasion, which reduce Bitcoin’s new provide in half — a milestone that has traditionally preceded important upward strain on value. On the identical time, key liquidity indicators are flashing inexperienced.
International M2 cash provide progress, stablecoin issuance, and a rally in gold — which Bitcoin has typically tracked with a lag — all level to strengthening demand.
Citigroup analysts this week set a 12-month projection for Bitcoin at $181,000, citing strong inflows that might attain $7.5 billion by December.
“We’re extra constructive on Bitcoin in comparison with Ether, because it captures an outsized portion of incremental flows into crypto markets,” Citi analysts wrote, including {that a} friendlier regulatory setting may maintain momentum into 2026.
With Bitcoin already logging file highs in 2025, the fourth quarter now looms as a decisive stretch.
